Make us your home page
Instagram

Get the quickest, smartest news, analysis and photos from the Bucs game emailed to you shortly after the final whistle.

(View our Privacy Policy)

Football Outsiders' 2017 NFL projections: No playoffs for the Buccaneers

Bucs safety Chris Conte celebrates after returning an interception for a touchdown against the Bears in November. Tampa Bay recorded 29 takeaways last season, its most since 2013. [LOREN ELLIOTT | Times]

Bucs safety Chris Conte celebrates after returning an interception for a touchdown against the Bears in November. Tampa Bay recorded 29 takeaways last season, its most since 2013. [LOREN ELLIOTT | Times]

The Buccaneers as a playoff team?

Don't bet on it.

The empirical thinkers at Football Outsiders have joined Las Vegas oddsmakers in casting Tampa Bay as an underdog this coming season.

The football analytics website released its post-draft projections this week, and it has the Bucs going 7-9 and finishing last in the NFC South. Tampa Bay, which won nine games last season, is ranked 13th in the NFC, ahead of only the Bears, Vikings and 49ers.

RELATED STORY: Jones: Tapping the brakes on the Bucs bandwagon

There is reason to believe, however, that the projections are underestimating the 2017 squad, editor-in-chief Aaron Schatz writes.

"Tampa Bay has a lot of young, developing offensive talent, plus the addition of DeSean Jackson, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates," he says.

The projection model takes into account FO's proprietary team efficiency ratings, regression trends, personnel and coaching changes, and turnover ratios.

In fact, turnover ratio is one of the reasons FO is bearish on the Bucs. They were second in defensive turnovers per drive last season, with more than 15 percent of opponent possessions ending in a takeaway, Schatz says. (The Chiefs were first; about 17 percent of opponent possessions ended in a takeaway.) Defensive turnovers tend to be inconsistent from season to season.

In 2016, FO projected 7.2 wins for Tampa Bay. In 2015, it projected 6.4 wins.

To read the full story and see the projections for every team, visit espn.com (Insider subscription required).

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.

Football Outsiders' 2017 NFL projections: No playoffs for the Buccaneers 05/18/17 [Last modified: Thursday, May 18, 2017 4:00am]
Photo reprints | Article reprints

© 2017 Tampa Bay Times

    

Join the discussion: Click to view comments, add yours

Loading...
  1. Storm routs Cleveland

    Storm

    TAMPA — Alvin Ray Jackson intercepted two passes, returning one for a touchdown, and recovered two fumbles as the Storm routed Cleveland 57-27 Saturday night in its home regular-season finale at Amalie Arena.

  2. Miscue sends Rays to another stinging loss to Rangers (w/video)

    The Heater

    ST. PETERSBURG — The Rays gave away DJ Kitty onesies Saturday night. Then they gave away the game.

    Rays centerfielder Mallex Smith misses a drive hit by Adrian Beltre with two outs in the sixth, allowing the tying runs to score. Beltre puts Texas ahead 4-3 when he scores after two wild pitches.
  3. Rowdies shut out Charleston

    Soccer

    ST. PETERSBURG — The Rowdies know a thing or two about stalemates, with five of their past 10 games ending in a draw.

    Rowdies in the first half during the game between Tampa Bay Rowdies and the Charleston Battery at Al Lang Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Saturday, Jul 22, 2017.
  4. Rays journal: Former closer Sergio Romo acquired from Dodgers

    The Heater

    ST. PETERSBURG — The Rays made a move to help the bullpen Saturday night when they acquired RHP Sergio Romo, who had been designated for assignment last week by the Dodgers.

    Reliever Sergio Romo has 84 career saves, including 38 in 2013, but has struggled this season with the Dodgers, posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings before being designated for assignment.
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. backs wife's "not worth risk'' opinion on Daytona

    Auto racing

    INDIANAPOLIS — Dale Earnhardt Jr. on Saturday defended his wife's Twitter post — and blamed himself for putting her in a position where she believed she had to speak out and upset some of his fans.

    Amy Earnhardt worries about Dale Jr.’s concussions.